Corporate Debt Expansion in Emerging Countries after 2008: Profile, Determinants and Financial Stability Implications
Cristiano Duarte  1, 2@  
1 : University Paris 13 - Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
Centre d'Économie de l'Université Paris Nord - CEPN, Institute of Economics- IE
2 : Central Bank of Brazil

This study aims to explore corporate debt expansion in emerging countries after 2008 crisis, presenting its profile, main determinants and financial stability implications. First, it is presented the features of emerging market corporate debt after 2008, with the growth of leverage, net foreign exchange exposure, later leading to deterioration in debt repayment capacity. Next, we do a panel regression to identify the main changes in the determinants of emerging market corporate debt before and after 2008 crisis. Our analysis suggests that the exchange rate has been one of the most important determinants through the period 2000-2016, and also in the period before 2008. But after 2008, the factors that have global origins (more accommodative monetary policy stance in USA, lower financial market volatility, higher commodity prices), or are at a country level but to some extent also associated to international conditions (firms higher liquidity levels), have become increasingly important. Combined with an international scenario particularly uncertain, this raising indebtedness generated financial stability concerns. Those concerns would be better addressed if developing countries and international institutions took additional measures, such as coordinated macro and micro-prudential measures, and an improvement in the regulatory/supervisory framework, in order to enhance their resilience against financial shocks.

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